Grain News: July 31, 2018 – Wheat Leading the Charge
Wheat is leading the charge this week with concern over the smaller and smaller world supply. Yesterday’s rally in wheat pushed corn and beans above last week’s highs. The forecasters are looking at drier and hotter weather pattern setting up for the US Corn Belt that is adding to drama as July ends and the critical month of August weather begins. The weather from around the world is also adding concern to the markets with European farmers seeing the driest conditions in decades as their crops burn up in the field. In other growing regions China, Australia and India are also dealing with the dryness and remain a concern.
Monday’s export inspections hit it out of the park for corn and beans and help to keep prices climbing higher.
Yesterday’s crop conditions caught everyone a little off guard.
US corn crop conditions 72% good/excellent vs 71% expected (70-73% range of ideas), 72% last week, 61% last year – conditions unchanged across the board despite widespread lower conditions in corn belt states-US soybean crop conditions 70% good/excellent vs 69% expected (68-70% range of ideas), 70% last week, 59% last year – g/e unchanged but 1% shift from excellent to good, most corn belt states lower-US spring wheat crop conditions 78% good/excellent vs 77% expected (75-79% range of ideas), 79% last week, 31% last year – 1% g/e decline vs expected 2% decline
China is enacting an economic stimulus package as US tariffs appear to be slowing their economy enough to warrant some concern. If US tariffs continue to cause financial problems in China, you can expect a more motivated Chinese trade negotiation ahead. With trade tensions easing with the EU it looks more likely that trade negotiations with China will happen sooner rather than later. Despite the tariff induced panic that US bean sales would disappear, the shipment pace, export sales and crush will all be record highs for July with yesterday’s total again above estimates. World bean demand cannot be capped by tariffs or political tensions and the game of bean sale musical chairs continues at full speed.
The last few months of grain marketing has been anything but normal. With so many pieces of a puzzle in play, let your Landmark Grain Marketing Specialist help fit those pieces into a sound marketing plan going forward.