Grain News: September 27, 2018 – New Crop Corn and Beans
Landmark elevators are starting to see new crop corn and beans cross the scales. In between showers, producers have been able to find beans below 13% moisture and better than expected yields. Corn being harvested has been a result of disease pressure which threatens standability. Yield results on this distressed corn has been a mixed bag due to the moisture levels.
Markets continue to navigate a bumper crop and daily tariff dialog. The international Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for world corn production by 10 million tones to 1.074 billion tones as US, EU and Ukraine are experiencing improved crop outlooks. Argentina is expecting a record corn and wheat production raising 43 million tonnes up from 31.7 million tonnes last year. Argentina bean exports will also grow 15.4 million tonnes in the 18/19 season.
Weekly exports last week were within expectations at 32 million bushels, but due to tariff it was very small compared to this week last year which was at 109.6 million bushels. U.S. corn exports were strong at 67.4 million bushels above market expectations and was only at 12.6 million bushels this week last year. Wheat and soybean meal sales were also solid. This is a couple weeks in a row with good wheat exports.
With rains moving through the belt the cash market slide has paused or firmed as Gulf corn basis firmed after the Mississippi was temporarily closed north of St. Louis due to a barge accident. There is a mix of wet and dry weather in the Midwest over the next 10 days. The editor of Oil World said that CBOT soy prices could fall below $8 due to the trade war and Oct-Jan Chinese meal production could be down year-over-year. A sub $8 CBOT board price is a sub $7 local cash price.