Grain News: September 27, 2018 – New Crop Corn and Beans

Josh of LandmarkLandmark elevators are starting to see new crop corn and beans cross the scales. In between showers, producers have been able to find beans below 13% moisture and better than expected yields. Corn being harvested has been a result of disease pressure which threatens standability. Yield results on this distressed corn has been a mixed bag due to the moisture levels.

Markets continue to navigate a bumper crop and daily tariff dialog. The international Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for world corn production by 10 million tones to 1.074 billion tones as US, EU and Ukraine are experiencing improved crop outlooks. Argentina is expecting a record corn and wheat production raising 43 million tonnes up from 31.7 million tonnes last year. Argentina bean exports will also grow 15.4 million tonnes in the 18/19 season.

Weekly exports last week were within expectations at 32 million bushels, but due to tariff it was very small compared to this week last year which was at 109.6 million bushels. U.S. corn exports were strong at 67.4 million bushels above market expectations and was only at 12.6 million bushels this week last year. Wheat and soybean meal sales were also solid. This is a couple weeks in a row with good wheat exports.

With rains moving through the belt the cash market slide has paused or firmed as Gulf corn basis firmed after the Mississippi was temporarily closed north of St. Louis due to a barge accident. There is a mix of wet and dry weather in the Midwest over the next 10 days. The editor of Oil World said that CBOT soy prices could fall below $8 due to the trade war and Oct-Jan Chinese meal production could be down year-over-year. A sub $8 CBOT board price is a sub $7 local cash price.

Grain News: September 25, 2018 – Tariff Pain Continues

Judy of LandmarkSoybeans are trading higher this morning despite better crop ratings on Monday.  Some think it’s tied to Argentine peso collapsing over 4.6% overnight after their Central Bank chief resigned. Some note Argentine crushers can make over $15 a ton importing US soybeans and exporting the meal/oil. US harvest is at 14% harvested compared to 8% average. Farmer selling is light with record wide basis at many locations.

As harvest marches on, tariff pain continues. A new round of tariffs between US and China kicked in yesterday. China reached out to US citizens with a 4-page advertising supplement in Iowa’s largest newspaper highlighting the impact on soybean farmers. So apparently, they are feeling somewhat of a need to settle the trade dispute. Hopefully trade talks will resume and be beneficial in the long term.

Corn market is slightly higher. US harvest is 16% harvested vs 11% average. Farmer selling has been light. The average projected yield based on crop ratings was up eight-tenths of a bushel, from 177 to 178.3. Export inspections improved and are ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA forecast. Mexico continues to buy corn from the US. Farmers that are harvesting corn are noting above average yields. The market should remain supportive until farmers are comfortable selling again.

Wheat is lower this morning. Wheat inspections were unchanged from prior week. Total inspections are down 29% from a year ago. US winter wheat plantings are 28% complete compared to 26% average. HRW acres will probably increase this year. Without problems seeding the upside for wheat will be limited unless global supply and demand changes.

Friday morning the quarterly grain stocks estimate will be released. This is probably one of the most overlooked reports of the year.

Please keep in touch with your Grain Market Specialist to help you with your marketing decisions. Sign up for text alerts from Landmark grain to be informed of harvest hours and other important communications.

Harvest is in the air at all our locations. Please take the extra time to have a safe harvest season.

Happy Harvest!

Judy Uhlenhake

Grain News: September 20, 2018 – Corn is Steady to up a Penny

Good morning,

Harvest has started in many places locally but have been slowed by this rain. The southern plains states should have some showers which will bring moisture for the winter wheat planting.

Corn is steady to up a penny as we start out the day. Open interest in corn was up yesterday even with the low volume. Ethanol production was up but the stocks from the previous week and corn sales were strong.  The dollar is also weaker this morning which may help corn markets stay a little higher today.

Beans are starting the day down a few cents. Basis continues to stay wide, but soybean exports were better than expected, but well below sales from a year ago. There was talk of Argentina proposing an export tax increase for beans and meal, but it is not set in stone. Besides that, bean news has been quiet.

With harvest upon us, please let us know if there is anything we can be helping you with. It is a busy time of year so if there are prices you want us to watch, contact your local grain specialist and have them watch the markets for you. If you haven’t already, ask about our local grain text messages. We will send out messages with our hours or if there is anything we feel you need to be aware of. We are here to help and have a very knowledgeable staff that can answer and questions you may have. Stay safe and happy harvest.

Grain News: September 14, 2018 – Huge Corn Yield Estimate for the US Crop

Doug of LandmarkThe USDA surprised the trade somewhat once again on Wednesday with the huge corn yield estimate for the US crop. They had corn yield at 181.3 bushels per acre a new record. They also estimated soybean yields higher than what the trade had expected at 52.8 bushels per acre. Both the corn and soybean numbers if realized would be above trend line yield. This would be five consecutive years that the US has grown above trend line yields in corn and soybeans. Ending stocks for next year on corn was reported at 1.774 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks are now estimated at an incredible 845 million bushels. These numbers compare to this year ending stocks of 2.002 billion bushels of corn and 395 million bushels of soybeans. As you can see corn ending stocks are expected to decline some this next year on great demand. The corn story is better than soybeans, however the market has plenty of bearish news right now.

The Ag markets were slightly higher to start out today. For the week soybeans are down 7 cents, corn down 15 cents and winter wheat down 7 cents.   The looming large US corn harvest will continue to keep a lid on prices for the short term. Wheat remains concerned about Russian exports and soybeans continue to be a victim of US/China trade relations and expectations of another large crop.

A second round of tariff-related aid to U.S. farmers could be announced in December, according to a white paper released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday. The aid package, originally announced at $12 billion in July, includes cash payments for farmers of soybeans, sorghum, corn, wheat, cotton, dairy and hogs. The USDA said in August that its farm aid package would, in the first part, include $4.7 billion in direct payments to farmers to help offset losses from retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports this season.

Argentina producers are shifting corn acreage over to soybeans to offset the impact of recent changes to export taxes. The Brazilian producer has sold 22.8 percent of next year’s soy production as of Sept 6th; double the level seen at the same time last year. The South American soybean farmer is having the exact opposite experience as the US farmer with so much China demand shifting there.

Please remember safety first this harvest season!

Doug Cropp

Preparing and Managing Your Horse for Winter

Woman taking care of a horseAs the kids head back to school and the weather starts to become cooler, we need to start thinking about getting our horses ready for winter. As you get your horses out of the pasture or out of the stall take a minute and evaluate body condition. This will give you a starting point or gauge as we move into winter. Then throughout winter remember your baseline that you started with and every so often evaluate your horse’s condition to ensure they are maintaining their body condition to your liking. Remember heavy hair coats can hide weight loss. Adjust your horses feed accordingly as needed.

You will also want to evaluate your facility for stability and proper ventilation. Poor ventilation can lead to respiratory issues. Make sure you continue with your regular hoof care throughout the winter months. If your horses live outside year around be sure they have access to a shelter. The shelter helps protect them from wind, rain and winter storms that Wisconsin weather brings. With access to a shelter horses can tolerate temperatures as low as -40 F. Feeding additional hay during extreme cold is a better source of warmth than grain. Also provide warm water with a temperature between 45 to 65 F.

Don’t forget to continue riding, exercising or provide turn out to your horses through the winter months because horses that are confined for too long can lead to lower leg swelling. When turning your horse out be sure the paddock is free from ice. If ice is present, use sand and salt to help with traction for your horse. Manure can be used as a source of traction as well. If possible after a heavy snow storm remove excess snow from the paddock to allow your horse complete access to water, feed and shelter.

A few steps this fall along with some basic maintenance throughout the winter will ensure your horse has a safe and happy winter.

Grain News: September 11, 2018 – Growing Concern About the Tar Spot

Katie of LandmarkMarkets are lower during Tuesday session as we await the USDA September production, supply and demand reports. Trade is suggesting that the USDA may slightly reduce yields in this month’s report which could give some support to grain markets.

Weekly crop progress numbers were released today, as the USDA had technical difficulties yesterday. Corn crop conditions in the USDA were up 1% in the good/excellent category at 68%. Trade expected the number to decrease by 1%. The soybean crop is at 68% good/excellent this week, up 2% from last week. Trade expected the 65%.

Locally, producers have a growing concern about the Tar Spot complex moving into the area. This causes lesion formation and plant tissue necrosis causing the plant to die prematurely. There is currently no solid way for plant pathologists to determine the impact, but some are saying it could cause a significant yield loss.

Export news this morning showed a sale of 138,000 metric tons of corn sold to South Korea for the 2018/2019 marketing year and the cancellation of 192,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.

As we get closer to harvest, please reach out to us here at Landmark with any questions or concerns!

Enjoy the beautiful weather out there!

Katie Demrow

Grain News: September 6, 2018 – Canada Talks Continue

jim photoSeveral market factors merged to push grain prices moderately lower Wednesday, with corn, soybean and wheat futures all trending lower during the session. Corn prices were weighed down by spillover weakness from wheat and perception for friendly harvest weather, despite a gently sliding U.S. crop quality and ample forecasted rains in the Midwest throughout the week.

Signups began Tuesday for USDA’s Market Facilitation Program, a $12 billion aid package designed to assist U.S. farmers and ranchers in response to damage incurred by trade disruptions with China and other key export markets.

Trade talks with Canada started back up yesterday morning, but there has been very little news coming from negotiators so far. The ability to pull Canada back into NAFTA would be expected to create a positive momentum once again, causing pressure on China, but so far that has remain elusive! China’s CSI 300 index lost almost 2% Tuesday night over fears that the US will add tariffs on another $200 billion in goods this week. China has found their 9th case of African swine fever. Live hog markets in 5 affected provinces will be closed and transporting pigs and pork products from those provinces will be banned.

A Chinese company will invest $100 million over 3 years to build a bean crusher and grain port in Russia.  They are also leasing 247,000 acres of Russian farmland to produce corn, beans, and wheat.

With the Lower new crop grain prices and a large crop coming on, some of you are wondering what to do with your grain that has not been priced yet. Do you sell it over the scale or do you store this year? Another option this year may be Landmarks Minimum Price Contract. Minimum price is a way to stay in the market for a rally that provides a price floor and immediate cash flow. The way that it works is that you sell the grain at cash price minus the contract fee is your minimum price. You will never receive less than this price. You can than take payment upon delivery or defer it-your preference. You will stay in the market for any futures rally and you will be eligible to receive any increase above a certain futures price between the day you sell and the contract expiration date. The contract fee depends on how long you want to stay in the market. When you price the contract, you receive the increase in futures immediately. Your Landmark Grain Marketing Specialist are here to assist you with this or any other contracting options.

Grain News: September 4, 2018 – Trade Negotiations Dampen, Market Defensive

Melissa of landmarkWell, the rain is the news around here, but the World is talking exports and tariffs.  China has indicted they don’t need the US for beans until early 2019.  China has enough on hand or can import from different countries until then.  Russia continues to play games with wheat; they stated there is no need to impose an export tax or slow exports.  Argentina is financially failing and reinstating export taxes on grains.  US grain barge rates continue to increase, up 30% for marketing 2018/2019.

We continue to see diseases in corn.  Keep in touch with your agronomist and crop insurance agent.  The market is trading both sides of the market.

Trading negotiations between US and Canada broke off on Friday with no deal.  No signing of deal with Mexico.  Sounds like we will not sign until next year at this point.

Funds continue to be long in wheat and short in corn and beans.  The market continues to be defensive due to yield and slow export program during harvest.

Make sure to keep working your offers and start marketing Fall 2019 with offers.  We still have options for helping you market your old and new crop.