Grain Exchange Update – Markets Are Up On The Overnight Market
Markets are up on the overnight market on corn and beans. Wheat bounced around staying even with yesterday. There were a few old and new crop sales to get the market rolling.
Corn: Up 1-2 cents Beans: Up 2-5 cents Meal: Up $1 – $2 SRW/HRW: Down 1-2 cents HRS: Mixed
Sonny Perdue stated at the Decatur Farm Progress Show that Trump will announce a plan soon to boost demand for biofuels. After many talks of ethanol slowing down, we have seen slight increase in production.
There continues to be multiple talks about China tariffs which will be put in places starting September 1st. This event could be a market mover depending on China’s buying reaction. There is also the new talk of a deal with Japan leading to bigger opportunities for ag commodities.
Spring wheat harvest continues in full swing in the Northwest and Canada. Sources say that the crop is looking better than expected. Ukraine also reported an increase in wheat crop by 3.2 mmt at 27.8mmt.
Harvest is coming sooner than we realize. Make sure you are meeting with your marketing specialist to discuss your delivery needs. We have many tools to help make your harvest run smooth. Just a reminder Monday is Labor Day, to honor that day Landmark facilities as well as the CBOT will closed.
Have a great day!
Kasey Baker Kasey.Baker@landmark.coop
Grain Exchange Update: August 27, 2019
Markets are trading mixed this morning with corn unchanged, soybeans lower and wheat higher. The market is still trying to find some solid ground after the USDA report. The market remains volatile with trade war and all the tariff talks back and forth. The market is becoming immune to talks of a resolution and is in a mode of needing concrete proof.
Corn condition improved slightly this week but still is the lowest rating for this week since 2012. Seventy-one percent of the corn is in the dough stage versus 87 percent average. Corn dented was 27 percent versus the 46 percent average. Weather forecast has temperatures below normal which isn’t favorable to get the crop mature. Traders will be monitoring the weather closely for any hint of an early frost.
Soybean ratings improved this week to 55% G/E vs 66% last year and 66.6% average. Soybeans setting pods is 79% vs 91% average. The US and Brazil are the largest exporters of soybeans. The US share fell to 30% when China’s tariff on US soybeans took effect late in 2017. In the first 9 months of the 2018/19 market year, when the tariffs took full effect, Brazil’s share rose to 77 percent, while the US share fell to 10%.
Talk to you Grain Market Specialist regarding your plans for the harvest season. We have trucking available for farm pick up of your crops, please let us know prior to harvest what your needs will be so we can start the planning process.
The corn markets firmed up slightly by the close on Wednesday, and they come into Thursday morning up another penny. Soybeans also finished up on Wednesday and traded up slightly in the overnight session as well.
The Pro-Farmer tour is at the forefront of the industry right now as farmers, traders, elevators and end-users all anxiously wait to see what the yield will be this year. Feedback from the tour is saying that there are some great fields, and some awful ones, but that they are starting to see better yields the further west they travel.
The tour was in a historically high-producing area of Illinois yesterday which included eight stops in the Illinois counties of McLean, Tazwell, Peoria, Knox, Stark and Henry. The average corn yield potential for this year was 175.56 bpa compared to an average of 201.45 bpa last year and a three-year average of 194.77. The soybean pod count for soybeans in these counties averaged of 1154.42 pods, compared to 1307.06 last year and three-year average of 1260.09 pods.
Another section of Illinois that included Bureau, Carroll, Marshall, Putnam, Woodford and Whiteside counties found much more drastic yield losses. The average corn yield showed 150.1 bpa compared to 194.31 last year. It also showed an average pod count of 688.76 compared to 1256.83 pods last year.
While the difficult weather and bearish USDA seems to be clouding over the industry, the USDA pulled employees from the Pro-Farmer tour due to a threat against an employee from an angry farmer that was not involved in the tour. Some sources say that this is a response to the anger from the previous USDA report that increased corn yields.
As the summer winds down, keep an eye on your marketing plans for the 2019 crop year as well as 2020 crop year. We’d also like to invite you to join our text update program for market snapshots! See the information below on how to sign up or give us a call and we can walk you through it!
South central Wisconsin is about 6 inches ahead of our average yearly precipitation, according to the UW Extension Research Station in Arlington, WI. As we are ahead of normal precipitation, we are still about 50 units of GDU behind our 30-year normal in heat accumulation. Late July and early August started to put us back on track. As abnormal as 2019 was, we are surprisingly on track to obtain almost average heat units. What does all this mean to current crop?
Corn Late plantings and a fairly cool spring have our corn crop out to a late start. We know that a delay in planting from May 1st to May 20th can lower yields 9%. Another concern I have at this time is getting our crop to physiological maturity or “black layer”. Black layer occurs about 60 days after silking. A lot of our crop started silking the last week of July, into the first week of August. Our average killing frost in Arlington is around October 10th. If we were to add 60 days to the first week of August, it puts us into the first week of October. Hope for a normal to warm September. We do not need an early frost this year, which would negatively affect our kernel weight and grain moistures.
We currently have a lot of corn in the milk stage. One can approximate silage harvest dates very closely with this information. About 35 days after silking, most hybrids will be about half milkline, with whole plant moistures in 65-70% range. This puts a lot of our silage harvest dates about September 1st.
Beans As we move from R3 into R4 and forward, we are really finished with the management of our soybean crop. Overall, in Dane and Columbia County, insects were not a problem this year, with a fairly sparse population of Japanese beetles, spider mites that were non-existent, and soybean aphids that are just showing up now. As beans start to mature and change color in the next month, evaluate your R3 treatments. Ideally, the crop should change color uniformly. Did the fungicide treated acres stay green and hold leaves longer? Walk out into the headlands where the beans may be double planted. Is White Mold present? Evaluate standability now. Look for foliar diseases like Brown Spot and Cercospora. As we lose the leaves in the beans this fall, a lot of the story of 2019 will be lost.
Alfalfa Even though we had more than adequate moisture this year, most growers had struggles with alfalfa management. Right out of the gate, many established fields were affected by winter kill. Because alfalfa prices were high and feed inventories were low due to 2018, growers elected to keep sub-standard alfalfa into 2019. Seeding were planted late into saturated soils. These plantings really struggled with disease pressure. It can be hard to evaluate alfalfa varieties for diseases, because most growers only plant one or two on their farm. Work with a trusted agronomist to identify alfalfa disease and put a plan into place to protect your plants. A few new alfalfa varieties have recently been released with new levels of disease resistance to Fusarium, Verticillium, Anthracnose, Aphanomyces races 1,2,3, and now even 5. Along with planting a disease resistant plant, consider using a fungicide on your alfalfa stands. Along with additional yield, fungicides can help extend the life of your alfalfa stands, by limiting diseases like crown rot from getting into your plants.
In my 18 years of experience, 2019 had the highest level of leafhoppers in our area. Most growers are scouting and treating fields over thresholds. While making this pass, consider other products to enhance yields. Micronutrients, fungicides and other foliar fertilizers can enhance yields and increase RFV. While alfalfa prices are high, take advantage of higher ROI.
Grain Exchange Update: August 20, 2019
Welcome to crop tour week! Monday’s tweets confirm the yield potential in corn without a late frost. Please see the chart below for information on frost damage.
Corn rating slipped 1% good/excellent to 56%. Pro-farmer is estimating yield in OH at 154.35 bushels per acre vs 3-year average at 158.59. While in South Dakota estimated at 154 bushels per acre vs 3-year average at 158.59. Corn is seeing support from the crop rating.
Soybean rating slipped 1% good/excellent to 53%. Pro-Farmer tour estimates the pod count in OH at 764 for 3×3 foot area vs 3-year average of 1,136. South Dakota is coming in at 832.85 vs 3-year average at 964.96. Trade is still having a keen eye on weather and watching temperature predictions coming below normal. Export news remains quiet.
Spring wheat is slowly getting harvested in the Northern Plains. Weather continues to have rains move thru the Plains. Crop rating improved 1% to 70% on spring wheat. Ukraine wheat harvest will be about 27.72 million metric tons.
With harvest just around corner, make sure to prep your bins and your equipment. Make sure to start planning for next year and selling at profitable levels.
USDA officially had only bad news for corn fueled by an acreage estimate that left many questions unanswered. While the Farm Service Agency reported 11.2 million acres certified as prevent plant, the crop estimating wing of the bureaucracy said farmers planted 90 million acres, nearly 1 million more than a year ago. With yields of 169.4 bushels per acre, that put production at 13.9 billion bushels, well above the most bearish estimate in the trade. Coupled with higher old crop ending stocks due to lower ethanol usage, the increase in supply left new crop carryout at 2.181 million bushels, a huge bearish number that could get even worse if USDA’s production estimate holds true.
USDA’s numbers for soybeans were actually a bit friendly. Unlike corn, the agency cut its forecast of plantings by 3.3 million acres, matching a prevent plant total of 4.6 million. USDA kept its yield forecast unchanged at 48.5 bushels per acre, for a crop of 3.68 billion bushels. While that was 165 million bushels lower than the agency’s last forecast, it was offset by lower exports, leaving carryout still historically high.
USDA raised its forecast of wheat production much more than expected in Monday’s report, but limited the impact on the bottom line of carryout by boosting its estimate for feed usage and exports. The result was projected 2019 crop carryout of 1.014 billion bushels, 8 million above Farm Futures estimate.
Monday’s crop ratings were unchanged for both corn and beans when expectations were for 1-2% decreases. The recent hot weather did not impact the crop as expected but the numbers (57% for corn and 54% for beans) do not come anywhere close to matching the yields the USDA used in their report.
The Trump administration announced Tuesday that it will delay its announced 10% tariffs on a variety of electronic goods from China after another round of trade negotiations concluded via phone. “We’re doing this for the Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers,” according to President Donald Trump. Some experts hope the move is a step in the right direction, showing the U.S. could be open to certain compromises amid ongoing negotiations.
This has been a tough week for everyone, we are adjusting our marketing plans for our customers by changing some open offer targets and locking in basis on contracts. Give us a call with any questions and let us help you navigate through these new marketing challenges.
Jim Fleming 608-295-8561 James.Fleming@landmark.coop
Dairy and beef producers across the country are expressing concerns about corn plant health and development setting the stage for silage challenges for the 2019-2020 feeding year. A review of the challenges and solutions can aid producers in developing corn silage strategies.
1. Healthy Corn Plants = High quality corn silage The healthier the corn plants selected for silage, the greater the sugar content to foster proper fermentation, and the higher the starch content for energy level. Reduction in plant health increases yeast and mold levels.
2. Whole Plant Moisture: Kernel milk-line is less related to whole plant moisture Kernel development and whole plant moisture are not closely related for today’s corn hybrids. The whole plant moisture is 62-68%. Sugar content declines as corn plants mature and dry down, and plants drier than 65% moisture become difficult to pack unless length of chop is reduced. Corn hybrids differ in their rate of dry-down.
3. Chopping and Kernel Processing: Only one chance to chop and kernel process Continually monitor chop length and processing to make adjustments as plant moisture and kernel hardness changes. The theoretical length of chop (TLC) for 60-65% moisture corn silage is ¾” for conventional and 1” for shredlage. Kernel processing can be monitored by placing 3 handfuls of fresh chopped corn forage in a 5-gallon pail of water, swirl, allow to settle for 2-3 minutes, then pour off water and forage to evaluate kernels in bottom of bucket.
4. Select an Inoculant Based on Corn Silage Challenges The Landmark Forage Solutions inoculants are especially formulated for a producer’s goals
For pH reduction to stop plant respiration and save DM and energy: Select Forage SOLUTIONS CS 100 WS (100,000 CFU/g forage) Select Forage SOLUTION Corn Silage WS (150,000 CFU/g forage) For yeast and mold control: Select Forage SOLUTIONS LB WS High level of lactic acid bacteria to save DM and energy (200,000 CFU/g) High level of L. buchneri to stop yeasts/molds (300,000 CFU/g forage)
The Forage Solutions inoculants feature a moisture scavenger, a buffer and chlorine binder.
5. Pack, Pack, and then Pack Some More: Oxygen is the enemy to high-quality silage Proper silage packing is key for excluding oxygen to reduce plant self-metabolism and to lower yeast and mold growth. Silage should not be packed in layers greater than 6”. Research indicates that packing weight should be at least 800 lb. packing weight per ton of silage delivered per hour. For example: 800 lb. X 100 ton/hr. = 80,000 lb. packing weight
6. Cover-up silage quickly: Oxygen is the enemy to high-quality silage Corn silage should be quickly covered with high quality plastic to reduce oxygen penetration, fostering yeast and mold growth. Contact your Landmark representative for your plastic needs.
7. First in importance but last on the list – Send Everyone Home Safely: Safety is more important than reducing shrink or yeast/mold
From The Field Updates: August 13, 2019
What a wild ride this season has been. A lot of work and crop progress has occurred over the last month of July. As of two weeks ago, the last top dress rig was sent out on 300 acres of sweet corn, so outside of alfalfa spraying and R3 work on beans, custom work has wrapped up.
Corn: We’ve been tendering helicopters & planes that are doing some post-brown silk fungicide spraying on corn the last couple weeks. In the past, Delaro has worked well for late season work, so we’re using that again this year. Weed pressure has been held at bay – in some cases, with just a SOLID pre-emerge program. Disease wise, there has been Tar Spot identified in some counties in WI and northern IL – Rock and Lafayette counties in WI and DeKalb county in IL. Given the year, corn is looking good!
Soybeans: R3 work (top 4 branches/nodes showing a pod that’s ¼” in length) has been in full swing for the last two weeks. In my opinion, beans like to be stressed early and pampered late, so a solid R3 program containing a fungicide, insecticide, and foliar micro-nutrient blend is ideal. Alfalfa: I’ve seen and had more calls on alfalfa these last 2 weeks than in years past. One answer to many issues is sulfur deficiency when the entire plant is yellow or chlorotic in color – especially if nothing has been applied this year or has only been applied in early spring before all the rains. The second most common issue I’m seeing is aphid and leaf hopper pressure when sweeping the fields. Good news, there is an insecticide/drift control pass (Mustang Maxx with InterLock) which is very affordable.
Grain Exchange Update: August 8, 2019
Positive day for the grain markets today as beans rally following on the coattails of bean oil. Export sales in bean oil were bigger than expected, which has the funds doing some short covering causing the markets to jump. The USDA announced exports of 135,000 tons of new crop soymeal to the Philippines. South Korea bought 23,000 tons of soyoil.
Weather forecast is showing limited rains over parts of the Eastern Corn Belt. This will cause stress to the plant over moisture in up to 1/3 of the Midwest. However, the southeast cotton/soy acres are seeing limited stress as the delta rains are providing enough moisture. While the U.S. is relatively dry, China is seeing flooding following Typhoon Lekima that is threatening their corn and soybean production.
U.S. farmers have been holding off on making sales until the WASDE report is released on Monday. This will give supply and demand, as well as re-surveyed acreage numbers from the June report. Ranges of harvested acres from trade and Informa have big ranges ahead of the report. Corn harvested acres estimated range anywhere from 76.1 – 81.9 million acres. The soybean range is also big with estimates coming in between 77.3 and 82.8 million acres.
If you have any questions ahead of the report, give us a call! Now is a good time to get your open offers updated ahead of harvest.
Have a great day!
From The Field Updates: August 7, 2019
We have been busy with aerial applications of fungicide on corn this past week. Corn burst out with full tassle on most fields during the week, so timing seems just right for this application. Fungicide applied on corn from tassle to brown silk stage should give the best significant yield boost plus improved plant health for better harvesting.
Final post sprays on beans may be called for cleaning up weed pressure. The new genetics of soybeans will really help for 2020 for increased options for controlling tough weeds like water hemp and others. Hard to believe, but an early order of seed for these traits is due now to assure access to limited supply of new seed.
Wheat yields have been overall good, especially where late fungicides were applied. Yield increases of 10 bu/a over untreated wheat have been reported by growers in Dane County.
Alfalfa fields should be scouted for potato leaf hopper, which is present in most fields. These insects can reduce stand yield, quality and weaken stands.