Grain Exchange – 7/2/2020

Grain exchange update with Melissa Schmidt

Happy Thursday! Markets are set to close at 12:05pm for the long weekend. Markets will open back up on Sunday night at 7pm. Markets are still watching the weather, which is seeing more rain and less heat.  Some drought areas have changed but nothing to crazy.

Corn seems to be taking a break this morning. Corn market has gone up about 30 cents. Exports are on the lower side. Make sure to look the Spring 2021 and Fall 2021.

Soybeans are up with exports to China announced for 2020/2021 marketing year. Exports for soybeans in old crop are disappointing and slightly above expectations.

Make sure to have offers working from now thru 2022. Making a marketing plan will help you reach goals and take stress off you. Contact any one of us and we will be more than happy to sit down and make a plan.

Have a safe and fun 4th of July!

Melisa

 

Grain Exchange – 6/25/2020

Grain exchange update with Kasey Baker

After several days of much needed rain we are seeing many of the crops thrive across our Landmark footprint. Rain is one of the likely factors we are seeing red on the Chicago Board of Trade this morning.

Corn is trading lower today. Ethanol production is tapering off as COVID-19 cases rise again. Corn is 72% good to excellent which is up one percent from last week. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri are holding the crop rating up. However, Illinois and Indiana are below 60% good to excellent.

Soybeans are also trading lower than yesterday. The press released that China’s “Phase 1” deal might be over. Differences between the US and China seem to be getting in the way of purchases this week after several purchases in prior weeks. Beans are 70% good to excellent across the US. Wisconsin and Iowa are over 80% good to excellent. Again, Illinois and Indiana beans are not fairing as well.

Wheat has been mixed today but July wheat is currently up 5. Harvest is starting back up after couple days off for rain. Yields are looking better than expected with a late frost which has been knocking the wheat down the last 3 weeks in a row.

With markets down it is a good time to remember to lock in profitable levels when there are small rallies in the market. The Grain Marketing Specialists have been locking in grain all the way out to 2021 to hopefully manage risk on future bushels. Please call one of us for help on any grain marketing questions.

Have a good day!

Kasey Baker

 

 

Grain Exchange – 6/18/2020

Grain exchange update with Judy Uhlenhake

Corn is trading higher today with concerns of hot and dry weather.  Rain is forecasted for the next couple days but some of the models are backing off on the amounts.  They are also predicting hot weather the last week of June.  Ethanol production continues on an upward trend, with 841,000 barrels produced last week; a .5% increase from prior week. We are down 22% from a year ago.  Fuel demand and ethanol production seem to be leveling off but blending rates remain strong. Weekly export number was on the low side. Chinese corn demand has been weak, they would need to purchase 10 million bushels every week until end of year to meet phase 1 targets.

Soybeans are higher.  Export sales were large with confirmation of the Chinese buying.  China committed to buying 1.65 billion bushels in 2020.  The U.S. would need to load out 31.2 million bushels per week to meet that level.  Currently we are averaging 11.7 million bushels to China 22 weeks into the year.

Wheat is down a couple cents.  Wheat futures put in an eight month low yesterday.  US winter wheat harvest is picking up pace.  Weekly export sales were toward the high end of estimates.

The market is going to closely watch the weather the next couple weeks.  Keep talking to you grain market specialist on your price goals and updating your marketing plan.

Keep the faith and stay safe.

Have a great day!

Judy Uhlenhake

 

 

Grain Exchange – 6/16/2020

This week is starting slow as the lack of market news keeps the trade in a tight range with prices settling mixed, but little changed yesterday.  A big bean sale to China was great news but did little to attract many buyers as beans were only traded above unchanged for a short time yesterday.

Corn prices fell fractionally Monday but have been grinding out slow yet consistent gains over the past six or seven weeks since July futures bottomed out at $3.00 in late April. Today, July and September each slipped 0.25 cents lower, close to $3.29 and $3.34 respectively.

Soybean prices fell slightly yesterday on some light technical selling as traders attempted to balance another large sale to China with this year’s fast-planted, high-quality crop that has massive production potential. July futures dropped to $8.70, while August futures fell to $8.71.

Wheat prices were mixed Monday in a choppy session that left most contracts higher amid some technical buying. July Chicago SRW futures gained 2.25 cents to $5.04.

With 1/3 of the trade year passed, China has only purchased 12% of their total Phase 1 commitments. Just saying!

Weekly crop progress report:

Corn planted 95% vs. 92% avg.

Conditions 71% good/excellent, down 4% from last week – a surprise decline

 

Soybeans planted 93% vs. 88% avg.

Emerged 81% vs. 75% avg.

Conditions 72% g/e, unchanged from last week, as expected

 

Winter wheat headed 91% vs. 94% avg.

Winter wheat harvest 15% vs. 15% avg.

Conditions 50% g/e, down 1% from last week and vs. 51% est.

 

Stay safe,

Jim Fleming

 

 

 

Grain Exchange – 6/11/2020

Grain exchange update with Melissa Schmidt

Happy Thursday! The USDA supply and demand report are due out at 11am today. Weather is drier in the week. Exports are better than expected.

China sold 3.94 metric tons of corn from reserves. US ethanol margins remain in the green by seven cents per gallon. China is thought to have booked two cargos for new crop beans. Markets are currently in the green. Wheat harvest is currently being harvested in Texas and OK with great test weights.

Make sure to get our offers in for old and new corn. We have several options to help you get close to your goals or reach them. Have a safe and awesome day!

Grain Exchange – 6/9/2020

Grain exchange update with Katie Demrow

Markets are softer today for corn, beans and wheat. Yesterdays weekly crop progress report from the USDA showed that the US corn crop is 97% complete, in range with expectations, and slightly above the five-year average of 94% completed at this time. The corn crop is said to be 75% good to excellent, up 1% from last week, and much higher than the G/E rating at this time last year, which was 59%. The US soybean crop is 86% completed vs 75% last week and 79% on the five-year average. The soybean crop is 72% good to excellent, just 1% behind expectations.

The Wisconsin corn crop is off to a great start at 96% planted and 86% good to excellent. WI soybeans are 94% planted and 86% good to excellent. The market will quickly digest this update and move their focus to the June Supply and Demand report on the 11th.

Weather leans wet as a good chunk of the corn belt will see some rains as tropical storm Cristobal moves in. We should see wet weather for the next day, but then the 6-10 day forecast looks dryer for most of the Midwest.

CONAB cut their safrinha corn crop to 74.2 mmt vs 75.9 mmt in May. However, they slightly increased their bean crop at 120.4 mmt vs 120.3 mmt in May. Open interest dropped 20K contracts in corn yesterday, as some of the funds started to exit their short positions.

Stay safe out there!
Katie Demrow

 

Grain Exchange – 6/4/2020

Grain exchange update with Kasey Baker

The crops are coming up and so are the prices!

Corn is up 1-2 cents and has been holding gains for a couple days in a row. Funds remain short which is positive news in the corn world. Ethanol reports show an increase in production, however nowhere near running at full production yet.

Soybeans are up for the 3rd day in a row for both old crop and new crop. At the beginning of the week we heard China was not going to purchase US Ag commodities. To everyone’s surprise there have been major sales every day following the headlines. These sales have been mostly 2020 and 2021 crop year sales but there are some sales for 2019 crop year which help out abundant stock.

Wheat has been hard to follow for the last several weeks. Some days wheat is up 15 cents then the following day down just as much. Today, the Chicago wheat is up 6-7 cents. The US is starting to see results from the late spring freezes contributing to the positive movement today.

The markets seem to be up in both corn and beans partially because the farmers are very undersold for new crop. If you feel behind on forward contracting your 2020 crop, please contact your grain marketing specialist. We are here to help!

Have a great day!

 

Grain Exchange – 5/28/2020

Grain exchange update with Judy Uhlenhake

Seeing higher prices for corn and wheat, lower for soybeans. Increase in ethanol production has corn trading higher today. Gasoline demand has rebounded over 34% since the start of the shut downs.

Soybeans are weaker as our relationship with China continues to deteriorate with rising political tensions between US and China over Hong Kong. US crush margins are also taking a hit.

Wheat is trading higher as forecasts in the southern plains show no sign of rain in the 7-10 day forecast. The weakening dollar is also supportive to the wheat market.

CFAP, Coronavirus Food Assistance Program, was released this week. This is a direct payment to farmers. Payments are based on losses where prices and market supply chains were disrupted. It is meant to help with lost demand and short-term oversupply. The program is being run through your local FSA office. The payment is based on unsold bushels as of January 15, 2020. For more details and a CFAP calculator go to the USDA CFAP webpage.

Click here for instructions on accessing your data in our online portal that will be required for your CFAP application. 

The crop is off to a good start. Please keep in contact with your grain marketing specialist to help get your crop marketed.

Keep the faith and stay safe.

 

Grain Exchange – 5/26/2020

Grain exchange update with Melissa Schmidt

Markets are up with sales to China this morning and the World re-opening or relaxing restrictions regarding travel. The energy markets are also up, with crude at over $34 per barrel. The Brazil Real is trading higher with the US dollar weaker.

Wow, what a difference one year makes. Last year at this same time 55% of corn was planted. Planting progress is expected to be 90% today, last week was 80% complete. Prevent plant acres or switch to another crop from corn are looking like 2-3 million acres. We will figure that out for sure in the June 30th USDA report. Weather throughout the Midwest has been ideal for corn.

Planting progress on beans expected to come in at 70% vs 56% over a 5-year average. Growers are still pushing to get bean acres planted prior to final plant dates. Tensions with China continue with China stating the US should stop wasting time accusing China over coronavirus and focus on battling the pandemic. US is considering additional sanctions over new Chinese national security law. Brazil has exported 12.2 million metric tons of beans in May alone.

US should start to see wheat harvest start in the next couple of weeks in TX. With the rains over the last week the market looks for wheat crop conditions to improve. Ukraine’s wheat is looking better with recent rains but still expected to be a smaller crop.

We are here to help you figure out Coronavirus Food Assistance Program. Please be patient with us, as we are still navigating thru what reports we can pull. We still have good options for marketing your grain. Please contact anyone of us and we are willing and ready to help.

Stay safe,
Melisa Schmidt

 

Grain Exchange – 5/21/2020

Good Morning,

Michigan, Illinois and Indiana will begin to see a drier pattern in the next few days after record rainfall that even eclipsed last year’s totals. Most of you in those areas got enough planted (IL 83%, IN 72% and MI 68%) that this will be a replant issue rather than a prevent plant issue, which is better than 2019.

Weekly ethanol production numbers rebounded but not as much as expected with a gain of only 14 MGa to 195 MGa. Miles driven needs to keep expanding to pull stocks down before the closed plants think about re-opening. High water levels on the Illinois River will effectively close navigation from Peoria to Chicago last night through early next week. Not sure if the south will have to close or not.

Much like all the uncertainty around the PPP loans during the initial COVID-19 stimulus package, Tuesday’s announcements on farm payment plans are generating more questions than the FSA can answer. Your local FSA agents will be in training until the application date. Like every other government program, do not expect the application process or the funding to go quickly. Keep your patience in reserve as you grind through this. Following is the best break down on what you can expect. Here is the YouTube video put out by the USDA to guide you through the CFAP payment process.

– Corn
– 98,500 total 2019 corn production
– ½ of production is 49,250 bus.
– Inventory on Jan. 15 is 40,000 bus.
– Use the smaller of 50% of production or inventory. In this case, it’s inventory of 40K

– 50% of the 32 cent CARES rate is 16 cents x inventory (40K) = $6400
PLUS
– 50% of the CCC rate is 17 ½ cents x inventory (40K) = $7,000
– Total payment $13,400

The other news that broke yesterday is that Governor Evers announced $50 million in direct payments to Wisconsin Farmers.

Stay well and stay safe!

Jim Fleming