Grain Exchange – 3-2-2021

Here in southeast Wisconsin we experienced a bright sunny day with even a few birds chirping. This month is off to a great start with March 1 being the first official day of the long-awaited merger between Landmark and Countryside. March also offers a fresh perspective on grain marketing and production as the USDA’s Risk Management Agency has set the insurance prices for this growing season as of the ending of February. The base price for corn this year will be $4.58, the highest level since 2014 and beans will be $11.87 the highest level we’ve experienced since 2013. These levels offer the producer confidence in improved profitability, meaning we will likely see producers pouring into this crop and adjusting practices to max out production unlike recent years.

There are several reasons to have a marketing plan for your grain this year, with the potential for a large US crop being one of them. New crop projections for South America continue to be historically high. US export FOB prices for corn, soybeans & wheat are no longer the cheapest in the world.  Large commercials are historically short corn and bean positions indicating US farmers continue to push along farm inventory sales at a high volume.

Take a deep breath… we aren’t saying the sky is falling and we surely do not want you over commit in sales to a crop that is not planted yet. Daily market chatter will keep the trade chopping around, but we’ll likely need new bullish news to push the markets about our current range. We would like to encourage you to have price orders in and a plan in place to cover the risk for this upcoming year.  You can contact your local Grain Marketing Specialist to put together a marketing plan.

 

Grain Exchange – 2-23-2021

Corn and beans are rallying today, and wheat is a little softer. China’s purchases and South America weather are driving grain prices higher. Demand from China should remain strong as China’s pig numbers continue to increase with reports of complete recovery by the middle of the year.

South America bean harvest is the slowest in 10 years. Delays of Brazilian harvest increasing concerns about planting the second crop of corn, the safrinha, which is shipped into the export market in June. Prices are currently trading at a 2-week high. The EPA is signaling limiting oil refineries’ exemptions to blending requirements which would be helpful to the ethanol market.

Slow harvest in Brazil continues to help the U.S. export market. Nearby soybean futures are up 2% this morning. The market continues to be concerned about the tight U.S. supply. USDA predicts soybean carryout at 145 million bushel for 2021/22.

Wheat is a little lower after yesterday’s rally. U.S. winter crop conditions were mixed in a report last night. Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska reported lower conditions while Colorado, South Dakota and Illinois reported notable improvement. Exports are quiet this morning.

The question we are asked frequently is will the market continue to rise or will it head lower at some point? To answer the question no one really has any idea what is coming next, but volatility offers opportunity. Prices will eventually move lower so don’t just cheer on higher prices but act on making some sales. Work with you grain marketing specialist to get offers in so you don’t miss out on sudden price movements.

Enjoy this beautiful 40-degree day!

 

Grain Exchange – 2-16-2021

Seemingly the easiest topic to resort to is the weather. It is a topic that cannot be avoided in the last month. The cold, wind, and snow… Wisconsin’s blessings. The weather has surely slowed any outdoor work and grain movement. The coming weeks seem to be promising to allow for February grain movement to pick back up as we finish out the month. Landmark Logistics offers the ability for grain movement in all conditions allowing for producers to keep equipment parked and clean from the Wisconsin roads! The potential to pick up off the farm in all seasons is another opportunity to keep grain moving in great market conditions and may allow for more volume to be sold then one can haul.

The corn market has been very dynamic as of late. One thing remains the same that is the chance to sell at least $5.00 cash corn for the next 5 months. The market does start to move lower the closer we get to harvest, but the opportunity today is there. We are almost a month away from when we watched the commodity market bottom out and people would have been excited to sell $3.50 cash corn. This market is a chance to add to your bottom line and price old and new crop grain above break even for many producers. Setting up a marketing plan to successful meet these goals and understand these numbers is the first step in grain marketing.

The nearby soybean market is continuing to hold its position. Many beans moved at harvest meaning there are few left to sell to the elevator. That same statement goes for the elevator as well. This market wanted the volumes moved and delivered as fast as possible. It is now time to be turning focus to new crop beans if producers have not already. The November 2021 bean market slammed down at the end of January and has been slowly creeping back up in February allowing for these price targets to get hit again. So, if one missed out on the first round, I would encourage offers! That way you can be a part of the second happening.

In summary, the markets are allowing for the farmer to make good business decisions to improve their financial well-being. The market is continuing to tell us to move bushels now and not later for all parts of the grain industry. The struggle is having the freight and logistics to do so. Maximizing resources to meet the goals and demand of the marketplace is essential and at Landmark we want to help all our customers achieve success in their marketing and grain execution.

P.S. In case you missed the Grain Producer Meeting on January 19, please click the image below to watch the full recording.

 

 

Grain Exchange – 2-11-2021

Happy cold Thursday! This week we have seen the market reach back to highs and then take it back.  On Tuesday, USDA released the monthly supply/demand report. Wednesday, we heard of cancellation of corn exports of 132,000 metric tons. Argentina’s government has said to ease tensions with farmers, no tax increase or quotas on sales. The Argentina trucker strike of 22 days is now over. The Chinese New Year (year of the Ox), starts Friday.

Corn received the biggest surprise with 1.502 billion bushels carryout versus the trade estimate at 1.392.  The weekly exports are bigger than expected at 1,448.7 tons. Ethanol production still stays on pace from last week at 275 million gallons and keeps in line with USDA usage of 4.95 billion bushels.  This week saw a drop in ethanol stock by 2.1% to less than 1 billion gallons. This is a sign we are exporting ethanol.

Bean carryout was close to the trade estimate at .120 billion bushels. The USDA kept South America at last month production numbers.  Weekly exports were also high in beans this week at 804.7 thousand tons.  With the bean market swings, putting offers in and leave them will help you reach your marketing goals.

Wheat also had great export numbers this week at 591 thousand tons versus the estimate at top end of 450. USDA kept the carryout for wheat the same as January’s report at .836 billion bushels. Wheat has some concerns with the artic air we are experiencing father south from here.

Remember markets are idle Sunday night and Monday due to President’s day. Trade will resume Monday night at 7pm.

Please make sure to review and put offers in as these markets keep moving. Having a plan and sticking to it and reviewing will make marketing easier. Landmark has plenty of options to allow you to sell and still be engaged in the market. Reach out to anyone of the grain marketing specialists.

P.S. In case you missed the Grain Producer Meeting on January 19, please click the image below to watch the full recording.

 

 

Grain Exchange – 2-2-2021

Happy Ground Hog Day! Only 6 more weeks of winter until spring arrives, are you ready? Below is a chart from RJO of how the market has reacted to the ground hogs shadow. Hopefully that means we will recover from the overnight market.

Markets are quiet today as the overnight saw red on all commodities.

Corn is down 3-6c

Beans are down 17-20c

Wheat is down about 8c

The market drop is after we have seen several pops in the market due to China and others not only purchasing old crop but new crop as well. The US export market is on track to be extremely successful for 2021 however there is still the lingering fear of cancelled contracts. There is still focus on South America as they harvest, they are just getting started in the beans it may be too early to tell real yield impacts.

Stay tuned for next week as we have another report coming up. If you have any questions, please reach out to your local Grain Marketing Specialist.

P.S. In case you missed the Grain Producer Meeting on January 19, please click the image below to watch the full recording.

 

 

Virtual Grain Producer Meeting January 2021

GRAIN – SELLING FOR A PROFIT

The Landmark Grain team recently hosted Roger Gattis, Grain Merchandiser with White Commercial Corporation out of Kansas City, who spoke to our grain customers about how to stay proactive in the market.

While market conditions change, the reasons why farmers sell grain do not, so producers should exert more control over their grain marketing decisions. Selling for a profit, not because of logistics or cash flow needs, is the ultimate goal—and that can only happen if the grain is sold at harvest, regardless of when the grain will get delivered. Waiting until after harvest to market grain guarantees added cost and risk, while the market may or may not rise to offer a profitable selling level.

Purposeful grain marketing takes considerable effort if you want to overcome the common obstacles of marketing grain: confirmation bias, trying to find the signal in all the price direction noise, and shooting yourself in the foot, to name but a few. It also requires using the calendar and seasonal price activity to your advantage. Begin with the end result  in mind, and focus on profit per acre instead of price per bushel. Doing this will allow you to take some of the emotion out of your grain marketing decisions.

Use free target orders and take advantage of our current rally to lock in some profit for your operation. “Like a lot of areas of life today, we had to look outside of the box to deliver a meaningful message in an effective way,” said Lacey Seibert, vice president of grain at Landmark. “Roger’s virtual message hit home and challenged our members to understand their seasonal marketing opportunities, set goals with a marketing plan, and identify targets that will bring value to their operations. These ideas are tried and true, and I look forward to seeing the success our members will have as they employ  these principles on their farms.”

In case you missed it, here is the recording from last week’s Grain Producer Meeting!

 

 

Grain Exchange – 1-26-2021

 

A volatile and choppy range best describes the grain markets for the last two weeks. March corn has gained back most of its losses. New crop December, while trading .20 off its high, will still net $4 cash corn in most areas. The soybean trade is sharply higher for both old and new crop as the market resumes trading the tight ending carryout numbers.

Last week’s lower trade can be attributed to position consolidation and slightly favorable weather forecasts in South America, but the weekly export sales report coming in stronger than expected gave solid support in the charts. Corn exports were 54.8 mbu with trades expectations between 35-45 mbu and last week at 36 mbu and beans were strong at 72.7 mbu with trades expectations 37-79 mbu.

The heavy snow in Wisconsin today not only reminds us that it is still winter, but that we still have plenty of time to market our grain. We’re sure there were more than a few of us having a moment of panic set in with the sharply lower trade that finished up last week. A marketing plan is the answer to your fear of missing out. Setting firm timing and price targets and then sticking with them will go a long way in reaching your grain marketing objectives. We want you to be marketers of your grain and not just sellers. Feel free to visit with your local Grain Marketing Specialist about putting together price orders that work with your business plan.

The volatility offers great risk, but also incredible opportunity, happy plowing!!

In case you missed it, here is the recording from last week’s Grain Producer Meeting!

 

 

Grain Exchange – 1-19-2021

It’s been a wild ride in the markets this past week and today is no different. Grains are tumbling lower today as funds are driving the market. Last week we saw significant gains in the market following last Tuesday’s USDA reports.

Corn prices are lower on a round of profit taking. The report tightened stocks to the smallest margin since the 2013/14 marketing year. There are also concerns with Brazil and Argentina’s corn crop. March 2021 futures were up 24 cents/bu following the report. Funds are at their largest position since February 2011. Funds will play a major role in price movements the next few weeks. Soybeans are considerably lower today from some profit-taking and harvest progress in Brazil. There is still strong Chinese demand as they continually increase their hog herds. USDA lowered 2020 soybean production to nearly 4.14 billion bushels shrinking stocks-to use ration from 3.9% to 3/1%, the second tightest following 2.6% in 2013/14. Typically, this time of year China limits purchases from the US and looks to South America for beans and comes back to the US in the summer when South America runs out of beans. Wheat has traded both sides today but settled lower. USDA report last week increased global demand for wheat. Crop shortfalls in Argentina, dry conditions across the plains, and global demand continue to increase wheat prices to multi-year highs. Just like corn and beans the funds are playing a major role in the wheat market. This week’s export inspections beans were higher than expected and corn and wheat were as expected.

The market is giving opportunities to price both new and old crop grain. As good as the price looks, we must remember that you should spread out your risk and not oversell the market too early. There is a lot of time from now until the combines hit the field and a lot of unknowns. Work with you Grain Market Specialist to help find a good balance with your marketing plan.

Thank you for being our customer.

 

Grain Exchange – 1-12-2021

USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) Report was released today at 11:00 am. The report made the commodity markets rocket higher.

Corn limited (+25 cents) for the day in the future contract months of March 2021, May 2021, and July 2021. The opportunity to move old crop corn has been presented with these greater numbers.

New crop corn had strong movement today was well. The December corn futures contract is up 17 cents which has powerful pull in fall new crop corn prices.

Nearby soybean futures contract was up 50 cents and November 2021 futures contract was up 19 cents. Once again allowing for attractive fall new crop soybean prices.

WASDE Takeaways

• The 2020 U.S. Corn yield moved lower from 175.8 bu./acre to 172 bu./acre
• Argentina Corn Production moved from 49 Million Tonnes to 47.5 Million Tonnes

Note: Argentina plans to hold more corn back from export this year as well.

• Brazil Corn Production moved from 110 Million Tonnes to 109 Million Tonnes
• Argentina Bean Production moved from 50 Million Tonnes to 48 Million Tonnes
• Brazil Bean Production stayed the same from last month at 133 Million Tonnes
• China corn imports have increased from 260 Million Tonnes in Dec. to 260.7 Million Tonnes in Jan. That this time last year China was importing 260.8 Million Tonnes. Strong increase this month 17.5 Million Tonnes compared to last month at 16.5 Million Tonnes
• Mexico corn imports remain the same at 28 Million Tonnes. Number is up from last year which was 26.5 Million Tonnes. Mexico has imported 16.5 this month and 17.3 last month
• China has imported 19.6 Million Tonnes of soybeans this month which is up from last month at 17.5 Million Tonnes
• USDA added $.20 to its average producer corn price forecast which is now at $4.20
• USDA added $.60 to its average producer bean price forecast which is now at $11.15

The market today is continuing to show its gratitude for the American farmer by creating more opportunities to enhance profitability in all markets. The market moves in old crop and new crop are mighty.

Cash markets for new crop for all commodities is promising. The opportunities to sell over $4.00 corn, $11.00 beans, and $5.80 wheat in the cash market!

With a market like we are experiencing today the importance of offers cannot be overlooked.

The phrase that comes to my mind when I look at this market today is…

Carpe Diem “Seize the day”

Grain Exchange – 1/5/2021

Happy New Year!

Grain markets continue to make new highs. The USDA supply and demand report, which includes final production, quarter stocks as of December 1^st and winter wheat planting, is one week away on January 12^th at 11am. Do you have offers working?

Soybeans are the story for everyone. Argentina crop is 40% corn and soybean are under stress. Brazilian crops are 10-15% under stress and European models have it drier. Mato Grosso harvest is under way and will plant cotton after beans. Russia put a 30% export duty on soybeans until at least June. Malaysian palm oil has hit 10-year highs.

Corn is following soybeans. Ethanol margins are running in the red and slowing grind. Brazil exported 197 million bushels of corn in December vs 164 million bushels last December. Corn prices continue to show you profit and profit for the fall 2021 and beyond. Think about layering in sales and rewarding the market for giving you a profit.

Wheat in Kansas conditions improved to 46% good/excellent from 33% in late November. Wheat prices are pushing to 6 year high. Looking out to July 2022 wheat prices are profitable.

Make a plan and stick to the plan. Offers are a great way to sell now and forward. Think about selling from now until fall 2022. There is profit there and you need to take advantage. Hang on to this wild but fun time to be selling grain!