Grain Exchange – 6-17-2021

One of the most sincere and accurate statements that I have read out of the marketing discussions this week is this: “The industry should be talking to farmers about opportunity management rather than risk management relative to the revenue aspect of their business. Farmers are in a period of opportunity rather than risk.”

Recent producer selling has rightfully slowed in the last week because of dry weather conditions. They’d like to see a good shot of rain before committing to more sales, regardless of the price. So is this a good chance to look out to 2022 and 2023 sales? We think so! As of this writing, Dec ’22 futures are trading at $5.06 and Dec of ’23 is trading near $4.50. We would especially look at starting on ’22 sales if you are currently booking your fall fertilizer needs. $5+ corn is not a bad place to start, especially if you’re looking for opportunity, as was pointed out in the quote above. 

The recent weeks up and down action in the chart reflects the longer-term forecast for moisture in most of the Midwest later this month and then balanced by this afternoon’s Fed update that is expected to suggest continued inflationary talks. 

Reach out to your local Grain Marketing Specialist and Agronomists to talk about opportunity management for the next few marketing years!

Grain Exchange – 6-8-2021

Grain exchange update with Judy Uhlenhake

Volatile is the one word to describe the current grain market. Declining crop conditions are sending the grain markets higher today. USDA weekly report shows corn crop deteriorating with 72% of the corn crop rated good to excellent, a drop of 4% from last week. The heat combined with the drought continues to hurt the corn crop. China continues to be a buyer of corn.

Beans are higher with the first crop rating of the season rated the crop 67% good to excellent, trader expected 70%. Weather maps remain divided on chances of rain for the corn belt. European model has Wisconsin remaining dry through Monday. The GFS model shows a wetter forecast. Export news has been quiet.

Wheat is higher this morning as spring wheat ratings is declining. Eighty-five percent of the US winter wheat crop is headed as of June 6, two percent of the 2021 wheat crop has been harvested. That’s down from 6% a year ago compared to the five-year average of 40%.

The USDA supply and demand report comes out Thursday, June 10, at 11:00 am. The forecast is below:

These are exciting times for Countryside Landmark as we are getting closer to launching our new branding and name. Keep an eye out for when we make the announcement.

We are here for you let us know how we can help meet your needs. 

Keep the faith and stay safe!

Grain Exchange – 6-2-2021

One comment from a producer yesterday summed up the current marketing environment well.  He said “Well, we knew we’d stay in a weather trade, so I guess a sharply higher trade shouldn’t surprise us.” And it’s true. Yesterday’s sharply higher trade came with spotted frost concerns in the northern Midwest and reports that 23% of the US corn is drier than normal over the last 90-days. Today’s lower trade as of this writing is due to the corn emergence rate jumping from 64% last week to 81% this week which is higher than both the 5-year average of 70% and last year’s pace of 76%. We can expect for the grain markets to stay range bound until the trade gets a better feel for what this crop year will shape up to be. Please contact your local grain marketing specialist to put price targets in for old or new crop sales. I want to take the opportunity to introduce our summer Intern. 

Hi there!

My name is Kenzie Riemer, and I am the Grain Intern for Countryside Landmark this summer. I will be located in Evansville but working throughout several southern locations. I am originally from Dakota, Illinois and I currently attend the University of Wisconsin-Platteville where I am a double major in Agricultural Business and Animal Science.

For my summer project, I will be reaching out to many of our southern customers to check in and get them set up with the customer portal that is accessible through our website. The importance of setting up this portal is to ensure that each customer can access their grain contracts and account statements right at their fingertips. Current customers that have already set up their portal really enjoy being able to stay on top of their documents with such ease. The portal also allows you to pull up the end of year statements which especially helps with crop insurance.

Additionally, I will be working with customers to complete their ACH deposit forms. These forms allow for the cooperative to automatically deposit money straight into customer accounts, so that they do not need to wait for a check in the mail. This form is also available on our website under the grain tab.

I look forward to meeting and speaking with many of you throughout the summer! Have a wonderful day!

Grain Exchange – 5-25-2021

Grain exchange update with Melissa Schmidt

Planting progress for corn is coming along at 90%, while bean planting is at 75%. The market was looking for 90% corn and 80% beans. Markets are responding according with corn down and beans up. Winter wheat conditions are at 47% good/excellent versus 50% expected. Spring wheat planting is 94% completed and conditions are 45% good/excellent versus expected 57%.

Corn emergence process overall came in at 64% versus average at 54%. Wisconsin is 58% emergence versus the average at 31% and last week 24%. This pace matches 2015 as the fastest pace since 2012. We have not seen sales from China this week. Corn planting in Ukraine is at 92% while Russia is at 90%.

Beans continue to be all over the place. Make sure to place offers and let the market work for you. Basis on beans continues to be under pressure with processors. Cargill and Ceres Global both announced new canola plants being online in 2024 to process at least 1 million metric tons. Brazil is on pace to set a new export number for May on beans.

Landmark Countryside is offering free DP on new corn/bean bushels coming to our locations. Please talk to the grain marketing specialist for more details. Make sure to not let this market get away from you or stop you from selling. Prices are still good now and in the future.

Have a great day and be safe

Grain Exchange – 5-20-2021

In a volatile trading environment, such as the one we are in, we quickly acknowledge grain commentary can start to sound like a broken record. The USDA slightly lowered its ending carryout for corn last week and the market has taken nearly a dollar away since then. We are currently in a technical trading pattern that will hopefully find its new range soon. Today’s slightly higher close for the July contract after trading 0.18 lower early afternoon is technically strong, but we just have to wonder how high old crop corn can stay for a sustainable period of time without triggering the technical selling like we’ve seen this last week. In short, we expect the choppy trade to continue and for the cash market to remain strong.

Let’s talk about the strong cash market. End users and commercials are looking for corn. There are a lot of producers delivering at this time because they’ve wrapped up with planting and now have the time to fill summer contracts. If this is you and you have unpriced bin corn, we would love the opportunity to buy your grain. We have options if you would like to stay in the market for upside potential as well. We can help you with a basis contract; this would keep the futures price open; you deliver the corn and not carry the risk of holding its condition into the summer and lock in the basis. The current cash basis in Evansville is 0.15 over the July contract for May delivery and 0.05 over for June. Please call your local Grain Sales Specialist to work through which delivery location and pricing option is best for you. Having our trucks pick up your grain for a reasonable cost may also be an attractive option for you. Using the Evansville location as an example, May delivered corn settled at $6.75 cash price today. We know volatile markets can scare some from even being involved. That’s why we’ll continue to encourage you to set price targets for old and new crop grain. There is still great margin available, but also great risk. We’re looking forward to hearing from you!

Grain Exchange – 5-12-2021

Grain exchange update with Kasey Baker

This week has been full of interesting news. Acreage, Brazil Conab (similar to USDA reporting), and WADSE reports have the markets moving in all directions.

Let’s start with the Acreage weekly report from Monday afternoon. US corn was 67% planted and 20% emerged. Wisconsin’s corn was 49% planted and 5% emerged. Both US and Wisconsin’s corn progress is ahead of the 5-year average. Beans were 42% planted in the US and 34% planted in Wisconsin most of which are still hiding in the soil. The progress as expected is also ahead of schedule.

Brazil’s Conab was released yesterday indicating there is more MMTs of corn than anticipated about 106mmt up from 99-100mmt. However, the weather is still very dry for the next 10 days so that will be impacting the 2nd crop corn.

On to the WADSE Report that came out at 11am today. US ending stocks chart is below. Notable observations, carryout is tighter than it has been in the past. When looking at the chart below it is good to remember that Chinese Government is predicting over a 4% increase on corn usage for the 2021-22 crop. World production was focused on South America, all numbers were exactly as predicted or better.

Although this is a lot of information to digest, the focus should be on the profit that the cash bids are presenting. There are a lot of moving parts driving the markets, almost all of which have unpredictable next moves. Instead of trying to outsmart the market, continue to lock in these great profits as far out as 2022. Continue to place offers and stay in contact with your Grain Marketing Specialist.

Grain Exchange – 5-4-2021

Grain exchange update with Judy Uhlenhake

May is starting out strong and the crop is rapidly getting planted. Corn market is higher focusing on dry weather in South America. Last week corn export inspections came in at 84 million bushels, the third largest on record. China was the major destination followed by Japan. US planting progress advanced rapidly with 47% planted. The big market moves shows how tight supplies are. We are sitting in a demand driven market. Exports, ethanol and livestock feed demand remains strong.

Soybeans are also trading higher. US soybean planting progress is at 24% ahead of the 5-year average of 11%. Global edible oil supplies are shrinking which is adding support to the soybean complex. Funds continue to be players in the market. We are in a demand driven market and will shift to supply driven volatility with weather this summer.
Wheat is higher today on declining condition ratings for the winter wheat crop and drought concerns in the Northern Plains, where spring planting is progressing. Cool weather and frost damage is sending quality ratings lower.

The market is going to remain volatile this summer. Nobody knows where this market is going but we can help you position yourself for profitability. Your Grain Marketing Specialist wants to help you be successful in marketing your grain. Get your offers in to capture the market moves.

Keep the faith and stay safe!

Grain Exchange – 4-27-2021

Planters are starting to roll in much of the state. Pulling the farmers focus away from the market and into the involvement of getting seed into the ground to start a new growing season. Do not let the markets slip out of daily agenda items. Over the last week, we have experienced a strong rally in corn, soybeans, and wheat for old crop and new crop grain. Understanding when to sell grain in a rally is always a tough decision because everyone always wants to hit the top.

That leads me into the discussion of opportunity management. Many times we talk about risk management and how to minimize risk. That is a good topic when it comes to safety practices, but not grain marketing. If one is trying to limit risk, it is too late in their marketing practices. They are playing catch up as the market is starting to move lower.

That moves me into another area which is understanding when one should sell. Many talk about breakeven targets and what numbers an operation needs to keep running. That is a great tool when it comes to understanding bottom lines and where the absolute minimum one can sell is. Here are some questions to think about when deciding it is time to sell. What do you really want to make this year? What are those goals for your business that you want to meet? Is selling something now proactive? Would selling a percentage at current price ranges meet my target goals? When figuring out what one truly wants to make per bushel can determine how you need to market. If that is selling cash on rally days, setting basis, or placing offers to meet market highs. At the end of the day, humble yourself and do not lose focus that current sales are at profitable levels.

Over the last week and to current, the market continues to present great prices to producers. Do not let this rally slip out of your hands. Take the OPPORTUNITY to make a sale at profitable levels that will improve your business. Many people have granted this rally to several different reasons. Some influencers are the dry weather in the US and South America, a belief that South America’s crop will be smaller, and that China is still buying large volumes. These are all strong reasonings behind a rally in the grains. One item to not lose focus on is the large number of outside investors putting funds into the commodity market. This is something that has influenced the strength of this market. Also, continue to watch the US dollar strength. Understanding what the US dollar is doing compared to the Chinese’s currency is a standout aspect in the commodity market. To understand the market and where it is moving, do some digging. Market information is all over the internet but look at multiple sources and see all points that are being presented. Continuing to learn is another tool in your marketing toolbox.

Next week on May 2nd new trade limits will be in placed for market open on May 3rd. The new limits will be as follows:

Corn: 40¢ per bu. (currently at 25¢ per bu.)

Soybeans: $1 per bu. (70¢ per bu.)

SRW and HRW wheat futures: 45¢ per bu. (40¢ per bu.)

 

Grain Exchange – 4-21-2021

Grain exchange update with Melissa Schmidt

Fireworks! Markets continue to move up with weather concerns both in the US and South America. The main concern is dryness in Brazil. Brazil also removed import duties today until the end of the year to help livestock growers. Wheat started the day very strong and fizzled out as the day went on.

Mexico purchased old corn before the day trading session of 114,000 tons. New crop corn settled 15% higher than the crop insurance price in February. Also noteworthy is the first-time a nearby board closed above 6.00 since July 2013 board went off. Planting progress is right in line for our 5-year average at 8%. Rabobank drops Brazil total corn crop at 105 million metric tons down 2 million metric tons. Watch the markets next week as progress is expected in planting.

Wheat is the sleeper of the grains. Winter wheat is 10% headed vs 14% on the five-year average. The good to excellent remained the same at 53% which was the same as the previous week and down from last year at 57%.

Beans are 3% planted vs 2% on the five-year average. China issued guidelines about cutting corn, soymeal in pig and poultry feed. China is looking to replace with small grains and use is expected to be reduced by 15% in Northeast China.

Make sure to be looking at your sales, put smaller offers in and sell on the way up. This is an exciting time to be in agriculture! Look to the future, there is profit there for you. Keep working offers!

Happy planting!

Grain Exchange – 4-13-2021

Grain exchange update with Kasey Baker

Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released their weekly report on Plant Progress. The results are as follows:

US corn is 4% planted, 1% more than the average and 1% more than 2020. Which is lower than expected. View the map for the specific state information.

Corn is up 5-11c this morning. The market appears to be concerned with the cooler temperature we are seeing now and the 10-day forecast. Margins are improving in the Ethanol Industry. On the corn side of South America, Brazil is on the home stretch of harvesting first crop corn. Most places are 75-90% completed. However, Argentina is below average, but making slow progress each week. Let’s see how quickly they can replant for second crop corn.

Beans are also up 5-8c. Soyoil is firming up while the beanmeal is softening. Brazil’s bean harvest is still behind the 5-year average as it is coming in about 83% completed. It is already predicted that April exports are expected to be up compared to March.

Wheat is following suit with rest of the commodities up 4-6c. If you look around, the Wisconsin wheat is looking beautiful already, but to the West they are hoping to get some much-needed rain soon.

As Countryside-Landmark is sending fertilizer out, the grain department knows the farmers are getting busy. As we continue to see the drastic changes in the market, it is advantageous to have offers out so that you stay in the market.