Grain Exchange – 9/15/2020

 

Crop conditions fall again, 60% good/excellent on corn and 63% good/excellent on soybeans. Wisconsin corn is still strong at 78% (same as last week). Soybeans conditions in Wisconsin dropped from last week to 79%. Wisconsin soybean dropping leaves is at 25% and nationwide is at 37%.

This morning’s sales came out at 9.68 million bushels of soybeans and 5.19 million bushels of corn. This is not helping the markets stay positive. Weather is helping finish the crop without any unseen issues. The markets are watching weather conditions in South America for planting and growing. Brazil has seen 54% of normal precipitation and Argentina is at 45% precipitation.

Ethanol margins are still in the black by 10-15 cents per gallon. New Orleans closed the flood gates for the UP rail and are rerouting to Memphis short term due to Hurricane Sally. Corn harvest is on target at 5% completed.

Winter wheat planting is active in the US and parts of Russia are seeing an increased acreage planted.

Make sure offers are working, we have seen offers hit better at night trading than day trading. We still have options available for this fall. Make sure to review your sales and offers prior to harvest.

Happy harvest and look forward to seeing everyone this fall!

Grain Exchange – 9/9/2020

 

Although it is still summer, the past few days has left Wisconsin feeling like fall. With all the fall feelings it reminds us that harvest is right around the corner. Have you been selling as we see unusual season rallies?

This shortened week is full of reports. Yesterday started the week with the crop progress report. Corn and beans are both down 1% on the good to excellent rating for the US, with the national rating for corn at 61%. However, Wisconsin and other northern states are well above the national average. WI reported 78% good to excellent which is almost 10% better than last year. Beans faired a little better on the national rating; it was reported that the US is at 65% good to excellent. Again, Wisconsin is out shining all of our neighbors with a good to excellent rating at 81%.

What does this report mean for the Wisconsin farmer?  Maybe there is still some hope in the futures market, however, with a huge local crop it likely means a widening on basis. Here is a chance to manage your opportunity!

The Supply and Demand (WADSE) report this comes out on Friday at 11 AM. The majority of estimations that are being released have corn and beans lowing production, yield, and harvested acres. These changes don’t appear to be super drastic in many categories except for yield. Another aspect of the report would be the demand. Although there are possibilities of the supply being smaller due to crop condition, the USDA is predicting that the demand could slightly decrease as well. Remember, these are all just estimates of how the WADSE report will go and we will have to wait until Friday to know actual results.

Market updates 9/9/20:

Corn is trading 2c higher but not quite as high as yesterday’s close. The Chicago Board of Trade saw its highest close of the summer yesterday.

Beans are also up 4c from yesterday, snow balling conditions decrease and sales are made.

Wheat is trading even so far today after seeing quite the dip yesterday.

Prior to reports it is a great idea to get open offers put into our system. When we see report changes often the CBOT rallies for only a short time. If you already have an offer you are better equipped to get the price points you are looking for. Please reach out to you local Grain Marketing Specialist to get your offers in today.

Grain Exchange – 9/1/2020

Will September be as kind to the markets as August? For the month of August, December corn was up 30 ¾ cents, November beans up 61 cents and December wheat up 13 ½ cents. The market is giving some opportunity to get some bushels priced.

The corn market is trading slightly lower this morning. Crop conditions declined to 62% as expected by the trade. Private estimates for corn yield are coming in 2-4 bu below previous estimates. Ethanol margins remain steady at 5 – 9 cents in the green. The heat and lack of moisture continues to speed corn development.  China continues to purchase corn, USDA announced that China bought 92.6 billion bushels for 2020/21 delivery.

Soybeans are trading higher, with more China interest is helping move the needle higher. Private yield estimates are down from August reports, ranging from 52.9 to 51.0. Soybeans were downgraded in yesterday’s report to 66% good to excellent. The majority of acres across the country finished setting pods during the heat wave, which could lead to lowered yield potential for the 2020 harvest.  Reports of pods aborting in the hot and dry weather increased over the past week.

Wheat is higher today with reports of Chinese interest. Reports are mixed on world wheat production with Russia and Canada numbers getting larger.

The market is giving us an opportunity to sell some grain, so talk to your Grain Marketing Specialist to get your bushels priced and continue to build a marketing plan going forward.  We are here to help you.

Have a great day!

Grain Exchange – 8/25/2020

Future markets are bullish due to the decrease in the USDA crop progress ratings and the Chinese commitment to complete Phase 1 of the trade deal. China staying devoted to the trade deal by purchasing U.S. agricultural products has helped the U.S. corn and soybean prices rise. The USDA has reported that corn conditions are at 64% good to excellent which is down 5% from last week. There continues to be damage found from the storm in Iowa. The Iowa corn crop condition proceeds to decrease, at the start of this week it is down 9%, the rating is it at 50% good to excellent. USDA reported U.S. soybean conditions down 3% to 69% for this week.

Wisconsin continues to see a healthy crop as USDA ratings drop. Wisconsin corn fell 3% moving to 81% good to excellent. Eighty percent of the corn crop is at the dough stage which is 25 days ahead of last year. Twenty-four percent of the crop has started to dent which is 12 days ahead of last year. Wisconsin soybeans experienced a drop of 3% down to 82% good to excellent. Ninety-three percent of the soybean crop has started setting pods which is more than 4 weeks ahead of last year.

The statics are showing for an early harvest which many are hoping for after last year’s misery. Farmers are starting to prepare equipment for fall harvest with a focus to successfully get a quality crop out of the field. With having that one goal in mind, do not forget about other tools that can reduce stress this season. Landmark offers our customers access to an online portal where they can track grain contract information. This online website gives the grower information of what contracts they have and how much of the contract has been filled. This tool can be used when waiting on the combine or the semi. It gives you quality information at your figure tips. Ask your originator how to access this tool.

Markets are up today, meaning it is a great opportunity to market your grain.

Have a great week.

Grain Exchange – 8/18/2020

As expected, corn conditions dropped to 69% good to excellent, while the market was looking for 68%. Iowa corn conditions dropped 10% to 59% good to excellent and beans are down 8% to 62%.  Soybeans are also down 2% to 72% good to excellent. USDA plans to collect updated harvest acreage data in Iowa before the September report.

The Pro-farmer Midwest Crop Tour is currently happening. Monday was South Dakota and Ohio with the following findings:

• Ohio corn yield 167.69 bushels/acre (154.35 bu/acre in 2019 Tour)
• Ohio soy pods in 3 ft. x 3 ft. square 1,155.68 (764.01 in 2019 Tour)
• South Dakota corn yield 179.2 bushels/acre (154.08 bu/acre in 2019 Tour)
• South Dakota soy pods in 3 ft. x 3 ft. square 1,250.86 (832.85 last year)

Interesting note that the tour found less bushels per acre in OH by 7.3 but SD was above 12.2 bushels per acre from the USDA. The Crop Tour will be in Indiana, Nebraska and Illinois today.

Markets are mixed this morning. Markets were higher due to the drier forecast this week. Pro-framer will wrap up on Friday with findings. Make sure that you have offers working. Think about when you need money and let us help reach your goals.

Have a great Tuesday!

Grain Exchange – 8/11/2020

This time of year, the most important aspects to the grain markets are weather and crop progress, yesterday we were hit with both. The extremely dry West got rain. That same storm moved from Nebraska to Ohio causing havoc most of the places it touched. In some areas they saw high winds causing fields to flatten, buildings compressed, and power lines knocked down. It is a little early to know the exact damage of the storm but according to the path of the storm several areas of crops will be affected.

The second market influencer, the USDA crop progress, was released yesterday as well. Corn conditions of good to excellent were lowered by 1% to 71% across the US. In Wisconsin our corn conditions are holding strong at 81% good to excellent which is better that Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.  Most corn has silked and now is mid-way through doughing. While the corn was down a percent on condition, Soybeans are up. US good to excellent bean conditions are at 74%. Wisconsin again has a great crop of beans coming on and are at 83% good to excellent. Majority of beans have completed the blooming process and 75% of the plants started setting pods. Winter wheat is wrapping up harvest and spring wheat is just starting.

Corn opened up a penny, likely resulting from the storms. WADSE Report will be released tomorrow at 11 which could cause the markets to be steady today. USDA is expecting another raise in yield for corn.

Soybeans are unchanged at this time. The storm news likely was muted by the raise in bean condition across the US. We have seen several sales to China on beans for 20/21 delivery which helped keep markets a little higher than the lows we experienced in corn and wheat futures.

Wheat is up 4 currently. Wheat has been extremely choppy. We again see huge decline in the wheat market as we wrap up winter wheat harvest. This decline has also been seen in 2021 wheat price as well. In result of decent yield and having a bountiful stock once again.

As always, the Grain Marketing Specialists are trying hard to keep risk as minimal as possible for growers. Although cash prices are not where the growers would like them to be, keep contacting the marketing team to ensure you have all the market information to make decisions.

Have a great day!

Grain Exchange – 8/4/2020

Today was a rough day for the grain markets. Several factors triggered a lot of technical selling today, including favorable weather, strong crop ratings and expected bumper crops in Brazil.

Managed money is estimated to be short 150K contracts of corn. The US corn crop is rated 72% good-excellent, unchanged from last week. Iowa is the main concern in the Midwest, but other states will probably make up the difference. Private estimates are starting to be released, ranging from 180 to 182.4 bu/ac. If you plug those numbers in the current balance sheet, that would put carryout at 2.98 billion bu. September set a new contract low today.

Soybeans were also weaker today. Crop ratings continue to show a strong bean crop. We are seeing private yield estimates be reported between 52 and 54 bu/acre. Demand could see better numbers if crush and export numbers stay strong. Without that we could see carryout around 790 million bu, even with carryout closer to 700 million bushels, it’s hard to argue prices to trade over $9.00 level.

Wheat continues it’s downward trend. Concerns over the Russian wheat crop have diminished so pressure will likely remain in the wheat markets without a threat to world supply.

Fear of missing out is one of the strongest human motivations. When making marketing decisions there is always the fear of missing a better opportunity. But instead of stressing about the lost opportunity look at it as your next future opportunity. Planning, being flexible and adjusting marketing decisions to work with the market are key to less stressful marketing. Please reach out to your Grain marketing specialist and let us help you better plan your marketing decisions.

Keep the faith and stay safe.

 

Grain Exchange – 7/28/2020

Late last week Tensions between China and the U.S. increased while China continued to buy more grain from the U.S. Monday the USDA released their weekly crop progress report. The report stated that Corn is 72% good to excellent, which is up 3% from last week. Soybeans are rated at 72% good to excellent which is also up 3% from last week. The good quality crop conditions are putting pressure on the markets early this week. Tuesday morning Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat are all trading lower on the board.

The USDA’s crop progress report states that Wisconsin’s corn crop is 82% good to excellent which has increased by 1 percentage point from the prior week. 62% of the corn crop is in the silking stage which is 13 days ahead of last year. Wisconsin Soybeans are 84% good to excellent, also up 1 percentage point from last week. 81% of the crop is blooming, which is three weeks ahead of last year and 51% of the crop is setting pods.

Thanks to rain showers last week, there continues to be plenty of moisture in the top and subsoil. 80% of Wisconsin topsoil has adequate moisture and the subsoil has 82% adequate moisture. Both being key driving factors in helping the Wisconsin crop develop.

Winter Wheat harvest has started to ramp up in the state with 34% harvested which is a week a head of last year. Wisconsin Winter Wheat is rated at 79% good to excellent which is down 1 percentage point from last week.  Harvest looks to continue as the forecast shows promising weather to finish the week out.

When the markets are down it is a great chance to talk opportunity management with your Grain Marketing Specialist!

Grain Exchange – 7/21/2020

 

The Tuesday Trading session so far is off to a softer start for corn and beans, while wheat is seeing some recovery. The USDA announced daily exports of 208K tons of corn to unknown, 180K tons of 20/21 soybeans to unknown and 126K tons of 20/21 soybeans to China.

The USDA released their weekly crop progress report Monday afternoon. The US corn crop is considered to be 69% good/excellent vs 57% at this time last year. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and South Dakota have the best rated corn crop in the country.  The US soybean crop improved slightly over last week. This week it is rated at 69% g/e vs 54% last year at this time. The US winter wheat harvest is on its way, but slightly behind expectations. It is said to be 74% complete versus an average trade estimate at 79% complete.

In the Landmark trade territory, we are starting to see wheat harvest pick up as well. Wheat futures are finally rebounding after two tough days of trading. We’re not expecting much of a rally as harvest continues to progress and the world has plenty of stocks.

Most hopes of a weather rally seem to be diminishing as most of the Midwest has recently seen rain, and there is more coverage in the 6-10 forecasts. Temperatures are looking to run close to average with no real threats of heat in the forecast.

Be safe out there and give us a call if you have any questions!

Grain Exchange – 7/16/2020

Wheat harvest looks like it will be right around the corner if we can get some dry days. October is in 12 short weeks so hopefully everyone has started taking advantage of the small pops in the market to get harvest grain forward contracted.

Corn is up just a smidge this afternoon. There have been a few corn sales to help drive the market up. One of the things holding corn back is the lack of drought talk now. Most places are getting at least small amounts of rain.

Beans are up 7-8 currently after a sale to China and an unknown destination this morning. Beans seem to be fluctuating several cents at a time both positively and negatively. Crush and oil markets are still within in the average estimated usage which continues to help the market.

Wheat is down 15 cents today but still holding a decent harvest price. Yesterday we were getting close to the $5 cash price in Wisconsin after China released an unexpected purchase of wheat.

Have you missed the rallies or been afraid to take the plunge when you see the markets going up? Utilize Landmark’s open offers. Place an offer above the market with us and it works 24/7. Once the offers are placed, leave them even if you feel the market will go up. If the market goes up, hopefully have more grain to market. Speak with your Grain Marketing Specialist about any questions you my have.

 

Have a safe day!