Every year the harvest season feels unique, this year was especially different as we powered through a Halloween with winter-type weather and now Christmas feeling more like autumn. Moreover, here at Landmark our grain dryers are still working very hard on BEANS, crazy! Phase 1 China trade agreement, USMCA and South American weather are the headlines in this holiday interrupted week as CME will close grain trading at 12:05 on Christmas Eve and re-open Dec 26th at 8:30am.
Chinese President XI has stated his support of Phase 1 agreement to trade has private analysts already inching higher exports for next year and predicting 20/21 ending stocks-to-use forecast below 10%. This trade deal is now expected to be signed in January and take effect 30 days later. The USDA is working on a website to answer questions how Phase 1 will unfold. Meanwhile Sen. Grassley hopes to put the USMCA agreement before the Senate finance panel Jan 7th.
South American weather forecasts are favorable with as much as 85% of Argentina seeing showers while Brazil could see normal rainfalls in the 6-10 day diminishing short-term concerns of production stress for spring planted crop. Fund position has remained short corn and soybeans.
We wish everyone a Merry Christmas.