Grain Exchange – 3-16-2021

Grain exchange update with Melissa Schmidt

Two weeks, quarterly stocks and planting intensions report comes out. Are you being proactive and working offers? With the volatility in the market, offers are the number one way to get the price you want. Don’t just think about the spring but think all the way thru 2022 and beyond. Remember if you are unwilling to sell today then you need to be working an offer.

Soybean market received the February crush report yesterday with numbers lower than expected at 155.158 vs 168.8. Last year at this same time crush was 166.3. This is the first signs of demand rationing due to the price of soybeans. Currently, the US is unchanged from last year on total crush making the domestic balance sheet correct with USDA’s project. Markets are still watching the Brazil crop with wet weather causing loss. Brazil beans are 46% harvested vs 59% last year.

Corn (for now) is up while new crop corn is under pressure from planting in the south being on pace.  Louisiana is blazing the trail with 14% completed vs 5% normally. Ethanol is seeing green at the current moment. China finally purchased 45.5 million bushels of corn this morning during the biscuit break.

Wheat enjoyed a supportive export inspection on 25 million metric tons. Minneapolis wheat still trying to keep spring acres from corn. Crop rates for wheat improved in Kansas to 38% good/excellent and Oklahoma to 57%. Russia’s Ag Ministry will continue to regulate grain exports until the grain supply “normalizes.”

Allendale Inc. released estimated acres for 2021 at 92.8 million acres of corn and 90.3 million acres of beans. Wheat was 46.4 million acres. The USDA Outlook forum had corn at 92.0, beans at 90.8 and wheat at 45.0. The excitement is growing everyday as we get closer to Spring and the March 31 report.

This is a great time to put a plan on paper and share it with us. We have plenty of tools to help you stay active in the grain market.

Have a great day!