Grain Exchange – 5/12/2020

Today USDA released the monthly WASDE report.  Average trade estimates have 19/20 corn stocks rising to 2.224 billion bushels, soybeans at 488 million and wheat stocks at 969 million bushels.  As for 2020/21 it estimates corn stocks at 3.389 billion bushels, soybeans at 430 million and wheat at 814 million bushels.  For frame of reference this 3+ billion bu of expected corn carryout is the largest since the late 1980’s while soybeans look to just manageable at best.  What does this say about price ratio going forward?

US corn planting progress at 67% completed was not as far along as the 71% expected but still well ahead of normal which for the last 5 years would have been 56%.  The Wisconsin corn crop is 59% planted vs last week at 33% and a 5-year average pace of 39%.  Soybean planting was 38% completed vs 42% expected.  The 5-year average is 23% as we are well ahead of pace there.  This year’s winter wheat crop is 53% good/excellent vs last years 64% in that category.