Grain Exchange – 5/21/2020

Good Morning,

Michigan, Illinois and Indiana will begin to see a drier pattern in the next few days after record rainfall that even eclipsed last year’s totals. Most of you in those areas got enough planted (IL 83%, IN 72% and MI 68%) that this will be a replant issue rather than a prevent plant issue, which is better than 2019.

Weekly ethanol production numbers rebounded but not as much as expected with a gain of only 14 MGa to 195 MGa. Miles driven needs to keep expanding to pull stocks down before the closed plants think about re-opening. High water levels on the Illinois River will effectively close navigation from Peoria to Chicago last night through early next week. Not sure if the south will have to close or not.

Much like all the uncertainty around the PPP loans during the initial COVID-19 stimulus package, Tuesday’s announcements on farm payment plans are generating more questions than the FSA can answer. Your local FSA agents will be in training until the application date. Like every other government program, do not expect the application process or the funding to go quickly. Keep your patience in reserve as you grind through this. Following is the best break down on what you can expect. Here is the YouTube video put out by the USDA to guide you through the CFAP payment process.

– Corn
– 98,500 total 2019 corn production
– ½ of production is 49,250 bus.
– Inventory on Jan. 15 is 40,000 bus.
– Use the smaller of 50% of production or inventory. In this case, it’s inventory of 40K

– 50% of the 32 cent CARES rate is 16 cents x inventory (40K) = $6400
– 50% of the CCC rate is 17 ½ cents x inventory (40K) = $7,000
– Total payment $13,400

The other news that broke yesterday is that Governor Evers announced $50 million in direct payments to Wisconsin Farmers.

Stay well and stay safe!

Jim Fleming