Grain Exchange – 8/4/2020

Grain exchange update with Judy Uhlenhake

Today was a rough day for the grain markets. Several factors triggered a lot of technical selling today, including favorable weather, strong crop ratings and expected bumper crops in Brazil.

Managed money is estimated to be short 150K contracts of corn. The US corn crop is rated 72% good-excellent, unchanged from last week. Iowa is the main concern in the Midwest, but other states will probably make up the difference. Private estimates are starting to be released, ranging from 180 to 182.4 bu/ac. If you plug those numbers in the current balance sheet, that would put carryout at 2.98 billion bu. September set a new contract low today.

Soybeans were also weaker today. Crop ratings continue to show a strong bean crop. We are seeing private yield estimates be reported between 52 and 54 bu/acre. Demand could see better numbers if crush and export numbers stay strong. Without that we could see carryout around 790 million bu, even with carryout closer to 700 million bushels, it’s hard to argue prices to trade over $9.00 level.

Wheat continues it’s downward trend. Concerns over the Russian wheat crop have diminished so pressure will likely remain in the wheat markets without a threat to world supply.

Fear of missing out is one of the strongest human motivations. When making marketing decisions there is always the fear of missing a better opportunity. But instead of stressing about the lost opportunity look at it as your next future opportunity. Planning, being flexible and adjusting marketing decisions to work with the market are key to less stressful marketing. Please reach out to your Grain marketing specialist and let us help you better plan your marketing decisions.

Keep the faith and stay safe.