Grain Exchange

The USDA supply and demand report will be out this morning at 11:00. While the last USDA update of the year typically is a non-event, traders are worried about the terrible pace of corn exports and if further cuts in demand and increases in ending stocks will be an unwelcome surprise. Today’s report will hold the attention of the trade for a few minutes then it will all be about trade news and the Sunday Dec 15th tariff deadline.

The last weekly harvest report was issued yesterday with corn coming in at 92% (94% estimate).  The slowest states are 74% harvested in MI and WI while ND is well below half-way done at 43%.  This leaves about 1.1 BBU still in the field.

The President’s administration sent House Speaker Pelosi a new proposal with changes for the USMCA, Pelosi should be feeling the pressure to get this voted on and approved by the year end and a vote could come as soon as next week.

China imported 8.28 MMT of soybeans in November, the highest number since August and 53.9% ahead of last year.  Their hog herd also continues to grow with last month’s numbers putting their increased numbers up 2% from October, and sow herd numbers are up 4% from October.

Trump administration sees partial waivers as potential fix in biofuel debate -sources – Reuters…will consider granting small refineries exemptions on a part of their blending requirement rather than taking a 100% or nothing approach of the past…this had been done even when the Department of Energy had recommended only partial exemptions. The ethanol industry is waiting for the 2020 blending requirements to be finalized, the EPA last week sent their latest proposal to the White House for approval.

End of harvest is near, be safe.

Jim Fleming