Grain Exchange – Cooler Forecast
A much cooler forecast after September 20 showed up at noon yesterday which rallied corn from the lows. Early freezes only occur about 8% of the time but the crop still needs later than normal first frost to help the delayed crop.
The pork prices in China shot up to new all-time highs Tuesday with widespread shortages now being reported. The enormous deficit that world pork producers now face is roughly 20% of the world’s pork supply. This is a result of the ASF virus still not being contained. The EU and the U.S. are the only two major producers with enough infrastructure to quickly expand breeding facilities. Unfortunately solving this problem will take years. An immediate return of this feed demand is not likely in the near future.
Crop conditions from Tuesday’s crop conditions were mixed as corn was up 1% G/E to 58% while beans were unchanged at 55%. Both were expected to be 1-2% better so the flat position rating is a little bit of a surprise. The delayed maturity of the crop remains the key concern in these numbers.
China filed a grievance against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization over the latest tariffs which will likely take 12-15 months to process. That would go past the 2020 Presidential election which is probably not a coincidence.
Only 86% of the nation’s soybean crop is setting pods. This is the smallest percentage for this date on record. 41% of corn is in dent, which is the 6th smallest percentage on record – 8% below the 1993 year. You would have to think this immaturity is detrimental to soybean yield; and leaves a big chunk of corn yield vulnerable to an early frost.
(CNBC) President Trump wanted to double tariff rates on Chinese goods last month after Beijing’s latest retaliation in the trade war before settling on a smaller increase, three sources tell CNBC. Trump was outraged after he learned August 23 that China had a formalized plan to slap duties on $75 billion in U.S. products in response to new tariffs from Washington on September 1. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer then enlisted multiple CEOs to call Trump and warn him about the impact of such a move would have on the stock market and the economy.
Next Monday (Sept. 12) at 11:00AM will be the release of the USDA Supply and Demand report. Have a plan in place to be able to react to the markets. Your Landmark grain marketing specialist can assist you with a plan through various marketing options tailored to your specific operation. Give us a call.