Grain News: February 14, 2019 – Disappointing Export Sales

Doug of LandmarkHappy Valentine’s Day!  Two days of trade talks between the US and China begin today.  According to a Bloomberg article, President Trump is considering a 60-day extension of the March 1st deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese imports. President Trump and President Xi are expected to meet sometime in March to discuss a potential trade agreement.

Export sales for the week ending Jan 3rd were released this morning. They were disappointing all around with soybeans having a net cancellation by China for that week. By next week Thursday the plan is for the USDA to catch up on the export sales reports and get back to normal reporting after that. To start out today the markets have reacted lower to the negative sales number. Currently US corn prices are 11-25 cents higher than South American corn in the World marketplace.

Many areas of South America still have weather concerns of either too dry in parts of Brazil and too wet in parts of Argentina. As crops there are being harvested, we will continue to get more reports of yields and more supply becomes available for export.

The average trade estimate for today’s January soy crush report is for 169.57 million bushels of soybeans crushed.  This would be the highest monthly crush number for January on record.  As new crush plants come on line in the US, we should continue to see record soybean crush numbers. At least we have one positive demand story in soybeans to talk about.

The February averages for revenue-based insurance products are $4.01 ½ for corn and $9.57 ¾ for soybeans.

The grain markets will be closed next Monday for President’s Day. The deadline to sign up for the Market Facilitation Payment at the FSA office is today. Landmark will be hosting grain marketing meetings next week Tuesday and Wednesday. At these meetings our marketing specialists will be setting appointments to create individualized marketing plans for your operation. The last few years it has been very important to start marketing early and this year looks to be shaping up the same way. Let us know if we can help in any way. Please call to RSVP to one of these meetings today.

Happy Valentine’s Day!

Doug Cropp