Grain News: January 29, 2019 – Markets Seem to be as Cold as it is Outside
On this very chilly January day the markets seem to be as cold as it is outside. Currently Corn, Soybeans and Wheat are all trading lower. The market needs some fresh news. With the Federal Government now open for business we are waiting for the USDA reports to get released. The next big USDA report will be on February 8th. It will include the regular supply and demand report. Key data delayed from January due to the shutdown will also be released, including winter wheat seedings, 2018 corn and soybean production and Dec.1 grain stocks. This could prove to be a big market mover.
A lot of attention will be given to China trade talks Wednesday and Thursday. President Trump is expected to meet with China’s top trade negotiator in Washington. A deal will get done with China it’s just a matter of when.
The corn market continues to trade in a narrow range. Support will come if we have good demand for corn and a reduction in final yield numbers in the February 8th report. Exports fell last week but are still well ahead year to date. Look for a volatile market as USDA begins releasing data again.
Wheat market is down today. Exports fell 6 million bushels last week. Inspections are 11% below the previous marketing year. Prospects for lower acreage in 2019 could help move the needle on the market, but demand still looks slow for wheat.
Soybeans are trading lower on concerns of tensions between the US and China and uncertainty of meeting results. Traders are looking for confirmation of Chinese soybean purchases done during the government shutdown. Gains are also limited on better weather conditions in Brazil. Exports were lower last week, with year-to-date inspections 28% behind the government forecast. There seems to be soybeans moving into China. Four of the 13 ships inspected in January for China (all loaded at the Gulf) have their destination listed as Singapore. Look for choppy trade ahead with trade talks and release of USDA reports.
As the cold weather is setting in, now is a good time to look at your marketing plan for remaining old crop and new crop bushels. Your grain marketing specialist is ready to sit down with you and work out a plan to help maximize your marketing goals. Greed, fear and panic are the three most common emotions in marketing. Having a marketing plan helps take the emotion out of the equation. We can help incorporate some specialty contracts into your plan and have some target dates to keep things on track. We are here for you and want to help you be successful in your marketing. Be safe in this cold spell.