Grain News: January 31, 2019 – Quiet Week in Ag Markets

Josh of LandmarkGood morning-

It appears mandatory that all grain wires this week start out by informing you that it is extremely cold.  Temperatures have resulted in many closures and logistic problems which have resulted in some cash firmness for shipments made this week in corn but not in soybeans.  In general, it has been a quiet week in ag markets as traders await USDA data.  Oilseed crushing and grain crushing reports initially for January 2 release (containing November data) will be released February 4 and December data will be released February 22.  Quarterly Grain Stocks, Annual Crop Production and Winter Wheat Seedings initially for January 11 release will be released February 22.  Exports for Week of December 20 will be published today and report for week of December 27th will be published February 7th.

Brazil crop progress showed early Brazilian soybean harvest continues to move swiftly at 11% and 2nd crop corn planting fast on the heals of the soybean harvest at 16% completed.  Disappointing yields have Brazilian farmers slow to make sales in hopes of better prices.   Argentine corn/soybean planting nears completion at 93% and 99% respectively.  EIA weekly ethanol data recap showed ethanol production continues to decline while ethanol stocks rose to the 4th largest on record.

Over the course of the last few weeks there have been some headlines regarding the Brazil growing conditions and yields.  If there could be any continued upside to such news it deserves a round of selling from the US farmer as world stocks appear plentiful.  With such stocks the corn bean ratio will continue to try to persuade you to put a few more corn acres in.  I feel the corn/bean ratio this time of year gives real economic direction to farm operations, but it should also be hedged.  Making a switch in February with no plans to market those bushels for a whole year usually is not advisable