Grain News – Second Highest Production for the U.S.
The USDA crop report was released yesterday at 11:00 AM. Corn production is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast but up 1 percent from last year. The yield was estimated at 180.7 bushels per acre. This was down 0.6 bushel from September but up 4.1 bushels from 2017. This was 1.1 bushel below the average trade guess. If realized, this will be the highest yield and the second highest production on record for the United States. With the lower than expected yield the market did react positively with a higher trade. Corn closed 6 cents higher on the day. Overnight corn has traded both sides of unchanged.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.69 billion bushels, down slightly from September but up 6 percent from last year. Yield was estimated at 53.1 bushels per acre a new record for US soybeans. This was an increase from 52.8 bushels per acre last month and lower than the average trade guess of 53.3 bushels per acre. Many in the market are saying this will be the highest production number we will see as the wet weather conditions are contributing to possible field loss and quality issues in soybeans. These numbers are not bullish, but the market is trading a bit higher on the fact that the reported yield was still a bit less than expected.
US ending stocks in corn were reported at 1.813 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks were reported at 885 million bushels. Corn ending stocks are getting smaller year over year with 2017 crop ending stocks reported at 2.140 billion bushels. Corn demand remains strong. Soybean ending stocks are burdensome with the opposite story on demand. 2017 crop ending stocks were reported at 438 million bushels.
Wheat was really a non-event. World wheat stocks are declining a bit but with a 956-million-bushel carryout in the US we are not going to run out anytime soon. We need to see exports pick up in wheat to help the demand issue. Locally in Wisconsin winter wheat acres might be down due to wet fields making it difficult to get the seed in the ground.
Weekly export sales reported today were disappointing on corn, wheat and soybeans. All were below expectations. Corn was at 39.63 million bushels; wheat at 12.46 million bushels and soybeans at 16.15 million bushels. The lack of Chinese soybean demand is clearly evident. Last year at this time the U.S. had 921 million bushels of soybean sales on the books compared to 755 million bushels this year.
On a positive note it looks like the weather pattern may finally be changing and we can get to harvest. Please contact your Landmark location for harvest hours and any additional needs you may have.